The dominoes fall – still again. Part of the surprise, even though all knew [Kim Jong Il] was about to go. No amount of orchestrating and planning can make them “behave” in ways others in the West wish they would. (They means the North Koreans.)….
Be on the lookout. There are wrinkles here, and unanticipated consequences yet to play out. The son, the dauphin, does not last and cannot rule. On the other hand, he could be a Julian in hiding [Emperor Julian], who saw and observed without being seen. If [Kim Jong-un] has seen and not been seen, [or if he has been] too damaged [by what he has seen], he could become a force to be reckoned with and surprise many…if he is allowed to live.
He was named heir because he obeyed. The [uncle] did not obey, and may be the better leader for the new world. He is an enigma. But does [Kim Jong-un] have a heart, which makes him deemed insufficient or too weak to rule, or is he so ruthless he would blow up the world just to get even, just for revenge? The jury is still out on this.
The internal violence – within the family and not just within the country – makes for some highly unusual dynamics. Right out of medieval England and [historical] Germanic drive. I heard the following quote from an old movie this week after a political boss kills one of the inner circle, “I loved this man like a brother, and yet I killed him. Imagine what I will to do any other who betrays me or my objectives.” [from “The Jackal”]
To use another movie metaphor, this is a “Lion in Winter” scenario: internal family intrigue shapes the future of [that] nation and the world….More important than anything: do not base the future on the past. And do NOT make assumptions.
Curious: the son may be a sleeper. Either or both of them…all of them. In either case, heads will roll. The maneuvering has been going on for years. The uncle will not be as powerful as he has imagined. He will be in for a big surprise, and if the West has counted on the uncle, it may be surprised as well. There is much to revenge, and many ways to fashion it, depending upon one’s perspective.
Written 31 Mar 2013
In some domains it may already be too late for short-term relief. The North Korean situation escalates beyond repair. The U.S. State Department is considered weak following Clinton’s exit, and South Korea is considered a weak target because a woman is now at the helm. Both are surprisingly not true. But Kim Jon Un is playing (and counting) on perceived weaknesses, just as Israel planned its surprise attacks on Muslim religious holidays in the 1960’s. Now both parties do the same thing.
There is no conscience here, no underlying sense of ethical propriety. “Get them while they are down [from weakness or prayer], or are perceived to be down.” International conventions on fighting – whether boxing for sport or interrogations for information, or all out war – went out the window. At some point in the past, men understood among each other that it was unacceptable to target the potentially excruciating genitals. Those conventions no longer hold true.
Also, KJU, as a young and overweight man, must prove his mettle with those who want nothing more than to oust him or rule through him as regent because of his youth. He is just young and unwise enough to be unable to control either his testosterone or his mind. This is highly dangerous indeed. He, like Napoleon, is a small man with instruments of destruction in his grasp. This is frightening, and no amount of “reason” gets through to testosterone…. KJU, after years of invisibility and ridicule, [is devoid of reason]. Beware. Will he eventually become a cultural hero and icon, or will he be vilified as the supreme example of hubris?
Attempts to use the old machine of war as economic stimulus do not work in the same way this time. Things go too far. He is not Khrushchev, and this is no longer 1962. The dominoes that have fallen in the Middle East and all of Europe continue to fall with unusual consequences in Asia. The scenarios there are quite different and quite a bit more shattering. Saddam Hussein, Muhammar Khadafy, even Benjamin Netanyahu, are or were not young men any longer when the world was on the brink of WWIII. KJU is a young man, a modern Caligula with no thought for the future of his own people or any other. He is the ultimate narcissist, and this is not good news. Both he and Hitler used personal insecurity to shape national policy and identity, where local or personal identity was wanting.
A most unusual character, and one not to be underestimated. He would, like Jim Jones, actually destroy his own population to prove a point. This is testosterone at the extreme. Do not underestimate his potential for destruction, even if it meant self-destruction as well. Something essential in him was destroyed many years ago. When you are young, you think yourself invincible. There is no moderation here.